xG and result fairness : Championship week 6

Actual vs Expected Goal (xG) totals Championship GW6

The majority of the results over the weekend in the Championship were fair, with home wins for Wolves (1-0 over Millwall), QPR (2-1 over Ipswich) and Leeds (5-0 over Burton) seen as the ‘fairest’ results of the weekend.

Leeds Rampant

Fulham and Cardiff couldn’t be separated, and nor could Preston and Barnsley as they all deservedly earned a point. Norwich got back to winning ways and heaped more pressure on Birmingham with a 1-0 win, while frustrations continue to grow at Villa Park after a goalless draw with Brentford.

Sheffield Wednesday got their first home win of the season, beating Nottingham Forest 3-1 after a very good attacking display in which they created plenty of good opportunities (2.72 xG). Middlesbrough also looked impressive in victory over Bolton, winning 3-0 with big-money signing Assombalonga getting a brace.

Sheffield Wednesday deserved winners at Hillsborough               

 Sheffield United edged out Sunderland in somewhat fortuitous fashion, with neither team creating many chances – less than 1 xG between the two teams. Clayton Donaldson scored two goals from low-probability chances, the second of which was a strike from 30 yards out which found the top corner. All in all, a good counter-attacking performance from the Blades.

Bristol City’s 1-0 win away at Reading was an ‘unfair’ result as the Royals generated the better of the chances without taking advantage. Bristol City scored late from a low-probability chance, in what was an old-fashioned smash and grab performance.

The most ‘unfair’ result of the week was in the first match of the week – Derby’s 5-0 win over Hull. Both teams created an even amount xG (2.16 – 2.14 xG), but yet Derby hit the net five times and Hull failed to do so. The turning point was Sebastian Larsson’s penalty miss – which could have made the score line 1-1 – and instead within 10 minutes Hull were two goals down. From then on Hull were chasing the game and Derby punished them.

Hull unfortunate to be hit for five

 Credit and xG source @infogolapp


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