Simulating Boro’s current xG v remaining opposition in the Championship

Middlesbrough started the season as an under achieving side after the level of investment and fan expectation during the pre-season.
Garry Monk has since been replaced by Tony Pulis which obviously could effect how Boro’s xG rating pans out in the second half of the season.

Middlesbrough’s current xG is mainly based on the results of Monk during his tenure, with only a handful of Pulis results contributing, and with a change in the style of play, possible new players coming in and members of the current squad leaving, the forecast and expectation of Boro’s final finishing position has been made that much harder. Simulating Middlesbrough’s current xG numbers against remaining opposition in the Championship can only be based on what has gone before so far this season, so any improvement Tony Pulis makes will obviously increase the percentage chances of a higher finish and likewise with any drop in form impacting lower percentages.

If Middlesbrough continue to play at the same level for the second half of the season as they did the first, then the final position probabilities have been calculated as follows…

⬆️ 2nd 2% ⬆️
⬆️ 3rd 5% ⬆️
⬆️ 4th 9% ⬆️
⬆️ 5th 10% ⬆️
⬆️ 6th 13% ⬆️
⬆️ 7th 14% ⬆️
8th 14%
🔽 9th 9% 🔽
🔽 10th 9% 🔽
🔽 11th 6% 🔽
🔽 12th 5% 🔽
🔽 13th 2% 🔽
🔽 14th 1% 🔽
🔽 15th 1% 🔽

All un-named finishing positions currently generate a zero % probability.

Without any improvement on the first half of the season then Boro are looking at a 7th or 8th place finish, however just a 1% upward swing in form would see Boro pushing for that playoff spot and pushing up that 2% chance of automatic promotion.

By splitting the league table into 5 segments (each segment 20% less than Wolves total points) then a total of nine teams would be classed as pushing for the four available playoff spots. 

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